More Odd Data Analysis

Curious how the two party preferred vote of around 54% to 46% in recent polls, 18 months out from the election, makes the Coalition all but certain to win the next election but Rudd getting one-third (about 33%) of the Caucus vote to Gillard's two-thirds (67% or so) leaves him competitive to challenge down the track.

Let's see the result a little after 10am today but a one-thrid/two-third split in the leadership vote is a slaughter.