Friday, 16 March 2012

The 2013 Election: Who's Vulnerable?

The Antony Green election pendulum points to a number of issues which might make for another close result at the Federal election in 2013.

Here are a couple of observations:
  • Labor holds only 8 seats with a margin of 2.5% or less, while the Coalition holds 14 seats with a margin of 2.5% or less. 

  • Labor holds only 14 seats with a margin under 4%, while the Coalition holds 19 seats with a margin of 4% or less.

  • Looking at even wider parameters and the pendulum shows that Labor holds 25 seats with a majority of 6.0% or less, while the Coalition has 30 seats that, on a bad day, are vulnerable with a majority of 6.0% or less.

I am not sure quite what to make of this all, other than to note that if Labor loses a number of the seats that would be appear most vulnerable (margins under 4%), it might get lucky and have a chance of picking up some of the current Coalition seats that were close in 2010.   This is particularly the case with the knowledge that uniform swings never happen.

1 comment:

  1. It might be wishful thinking but I can't see the next Federal election being the wipe out that the polls predict. The government will have a story of achievement to tell, which it did not last time.

    I am looking forward to the contorted reasoning from Abbott in how he is going to keep the pension increases, tax cuts and green cheques funded by the Carbon Price and Mining Tax, while getting rid of the funding sources that pay for them.

    Of cause he might be honest and say that in getting rid of the Carbon "Tax" and Mining Tax he will have to increase Personal and Business Taxes and cut pensions, but I think that is unlikely.

    The electoral geography that you note in the post adds another wrinkle in anticipating the next election.