tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2831755574880155421.post2805683769139605004..comments2023-05-01T00:33:18.258-07:00Comments on Stephen Koukoulas: Mirabella Misunderstands ManufacturingStephen Koukoulashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08403788361480841035noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2831755574880155421.post-1245587882493712672012-02-01T02:17:28.437-08:002012-02-01T02:17:28.437-08:00I still only get 2.57% not 2.7%. Using seasonally ...I still only get 2.57% not 2.7%. Using seasonally adjusted data of course. <br /><br />Are you calculating the arithmetic mean or the geometric mean. The latter is more reliable. There wasn't much difference between them in the annual data but there is when using quarterly data because it is more variable. <br /><br />So for example the geometric mean for H - K period is 2.49% on quarterly data. The geometric mean can be influenced by start and end point problems so you should look around those points. <br /><br />The two quarters before Mar 83 had big drops in mfg output. That has biased up both the arithmetic and geometric means for H - K period. The geometric mean falls to 2.15%. So I don't think the data you present tell much of a story at all. <br /><br />All in all because of the greater variability of quarterly data you should stick to the annual amounts.drpagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08980083422029028352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2831755574880155421.post-84174700520873937212012-02-01T00:16:33.026-08:002012-02-01T00:16:33.026-08:00I used quarterly data: Fraser Dec 75 to Mar 83: ...I used quarterly data: Fraser Dec 75 to Mar 83: Hawke / Keating Mar 83 to Mar 96; Howard Mar 96 to Dec 07: Rudd / Gillard Dec 07 to Sep 11 (latest data) Cheers SKStephen Koukoulashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08403788361480841035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2831755574880155421.post-72846485996112305832012-01-31T22:52:30.834-08:002012-01-31T22:52:30.834-08:00Do you mind sharing your calcs? I have just looked...Do you mind sharing your calcs? I have just looked at mfg output in ABS 5204.0, chain volume measures, and I get different figures for the H / K period. <br /><br />On my calcs avg growth in mfg during H / K is only 2.1% not 2.7%. That is higher than H / C but not hugely so. Also I would expect that mfg output would be heavily correlated to our dollar and AUD was high during later part of H / C. <br /><br />Indeed if you calculate the avg growth rate from 96 to 03, when the mining boom really started to kick off, you get 2.2%, basically the same as the H / K period. <br /><br />My calcs below. If they format ok.<br /><br />Jun-1983 70822 <br />Jun-1984 71897 1.5% <br />Jun-1985 75570 5.1% <br />Jun-1986 76051 0.6% <br />Jun-1987 78132 2.7% <br />Jun-1988 83343 6.7% <br />Jun-1989 88143 5.8% <br />Jun-1990 87105 -1.2% <br />Jun-1991 85187 -2.2% <br />Jun-1992 82660 -3.0% <br />Jun-1993 84425 2.1% <br />Jun-1994 88192 4.5% <br />Jun-1995 90064 2.1% <br />Jun-1996 92083 2.2% 2.1%<br />Jun-1997 93558 1.6% <br />Jun-1998 96153 2.8% <br />Jun-1999 98020 1.9% <br />Jun-2000 98791 0.8% <br />Jun-2001 100842 2.1% <br />Jun-2002 103020 2.2% <br />Jun-2003 107174 4.0% 2.2%<br />Jun-2004 108343 1.1% <br />Jun-2005 107043 -1.2% <br />Jun-2006 106647 -0.4% <br />Jun-2007 108703 1.9% 1.5%<br />Jun-2008 113062 4.0% <br />Jun-2009 106363 -5.9% <br />Jun-2010 107707 1.3% <br />Jun-2011 107845 0.1% -0.1%drpagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08980083422029028352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2831755574880155421.post-15171451757442220422012-01-31T21:50:59.296-08:002012-01-31T21:50:59.296-08:00True, but who will make our tanks and jeeps when W...True, but who will make our tanks and jeeps when WW3 starts. Oh wait. America. Just like last time...... (see history of the Sentinal Tank AC-I to AC-IV, the best tank never to fight WW2)Fake Paul Keatinghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05151895678851084960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2831755574880155421.post-46052553211618432772012-01-31T21:50:15.877-08:002012-01-31T21:50:15.877-08:00Bigad - that's a little harsh... but only a li...Bigad - that's a little harsh... but only a little. SKStephen Koukoulashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08403788361480841035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2831755574880155421.post-77003703066420807212012-01-31T21:42:58.348-08:002012-01-31T21:42:58.348-08:00Not to mention that the car industry is nothing bu...Not to mention that the car industry is nothing but a leech in this country - the only thing they do well is extract $$$ from governments around the world via 'jobs blackmail'.Bigadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04839366456339044078noreply@blogger.com